Five Cubs Things, 7/7: I'm Back
Busch's Big Week, Palencia's Fast Pitch and More
We Are Good.
So good, in fact, that I can't sit on the sidelines and not write about these Chicago Cubs anymore. If you've followed my work before, particularly my last stop at Bleacher Nation, you might know I have a penchant to think about things in lists of five. In considering how to write about this team, I figured I'd keep it simple and vague: just five things I'm thinking about.
Each Monday (at 1:20) between now and season's end, I'll be here with a handful of new ones. It feels wrong to ask you to smash that subscribe button, but hey, let's grind through the next four months together. Here goes.
Last week: 5-1. Record: 54-36. FG Playoff Odds: 94.6%.
ONE, Cubs Star of the Week: Michael Busch
The Niche But Important Split That Busch Leads MLB
Even though it was a good week for optimism on the subject, I don't want my first post on Michael Busch to be another analysis of his skills (or lack thereof) against lefties. And I sure don't want it to be a re-litigation of the trade that acquired him. Instead, let's talk about the underdiscussed skill that Busch leads baseball in, and how it's already impacting the way he's being pitched.
Covering the outside pitch. Hitting with arms extended. Whatever you want to call it, Busch is atop MLB in 2025 by a massive amount. Here's the wOBA leaderboard:
1. Busch, .456
2. Judge, .424
3. Muncy, .380
4. Wood, .368
5. Paredes, .368
6. Ohtani, .366
But wait, what's this split we're even isolating here? Check out a picture of the zones that GameDay assigns each pitch's location from the catcher’s perspective. For left-handed hitters, I'm filtering for pitches in zones 1, 4, 7, 11, 13. For righties, the opposite: 3, 6, 9, 12, 14. Essentially, they are pitches where the pitcher is working away from the hitter.
And Busch is absolutely awesome at not letting them beat him there. Consider his home run off Matthew Liberatore on Saturday. Or his homer into the Crawford Boxes off Lance McCullers Jr. Or how about his grand slam off an 0-2 pitch in Milwaukee?
Busch isn't just tops in MLB on all pitches in those zones (which gives him credit for his walks), but easily also at the top in wOBA just on swings and wOBA just on contact in those locations. He combines the ability to make good swing decisions with a willingness to go the other way and the ability to still pull pitches on the outer half and do damage. And the thing is, the way MLB works, other teams have noticed. Check out the % of pitches each month (entering yesterday) that Busch has seen in those zones:
March/April: 50.2%
May: 46.2%
June: 43.5%
July: 42.1%
The Cardinals started the weekend trying to shorten Busch's arms and pitch him inside, but Busch, Dustin Kelly and the Cubs were ready for the adjustment. Of the nine hits that Busch had in this weekend's series, five were on inner third pitches. If Busch can continue his development to damage pitches in those locations, we're talking about an all-around hitter that yields a pick-your-poison scouting report. He’s an All-Star, no matter what the roster tells ya.
TWO, That One Pitch: Daniel Palencia
Ninth inning, 5-2 game, one out, 0-2 count. Third straight fastball.
Perhaps my favorite Cubs subplot of the summer so far has been the emergence of Daniel Palencia's confidence, immeasurably different than the guy we saw the previous two seasons. I give a lot of credit for that to the coaching staff, for two reasons. First, Craig Counsell, for sticking with Palencia at closer after blowing the save in Miami. Other managers might have overreacted.
And second, Tommy Hottovy, who has led a decision this year to simplify Palencia's arsenal. Danny now throws his 99-102 mph four-seam fastball 73.5% of the time, the highest rate that any right-hander goes with their preferred fastball in 2025.
Confidence allows you to challenge a hitter inside the zone. And adrenaline, which Wrigley Field's atmosphere was supplying in spades on Tuesday night, allows you to throw hard. This is the Daniel Palencia that poor Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas ran into with one out in the ninth that day, and his at-bat finished on the fastest fastball a Cubs pitcher has thrown since Aroldis Chapman left town with a World Series ring.
But here's the great thing about Palencia's fastball: it's more than just the velocity. If you're unfamiliar with Vertical Approach Angle, allow Palencia's excellence in the statistic be your introduction to it. Trackman defines VAA as the angle at which a pitch crosses home plate. It's a metric that is impacted by some important traits in how a pitch acts: its velocity, release height, extension, spin rate.
And here's the fun thing about Danny. He throws as hard as almost anyone. His release height is in the lower quartile of MLB pitchers. His extension is in the 71st percentile. His fastball spin rate is above average. Truly checking every box.
FanGraphs Alex Chamberlain has written why four-seam fastballs are more effective at "flatter" approach angles. And Alex also has an incredible leaderboard that allows us to say this: Daniel Palencia has the 13th flattest fastball among the 278 pitchers to have thrown 150 four seamers this year.
I'd be willing to bet that pitch to Lane Thomas, thrown at 101.9 mph, with a higher-than-normal spin rate and ride, and location up-and-in, is one of the flatter fastballs Palencia has thrown this year. An impossible-to-hit, truly-80-grade pitch. Another confidence builder.
In short: keep throwing them heaters, Danny.
THREE, Cubs Prospect of the Week: Owen Caissie
Strong Q2 Earnings for ONKC
ONKC played his 70th game of 2025 yesterday, and like the three days that preceded it, grabbed a couple of hits and scored a couple of runs. Let’s use that round number of games to split Owen’s season into two:
First 35: 230 AVG / 340 OBP / 485 SLG, .358 wOBA, 13.1 BB%, 34.6 K%
Last 35: 326 AVG / 435 OBP / 628 SLG, .450 wOBA, 14.9 BB%, 26.0 K%
The first thing that needs to be acknowledged, is there's a little bit of Baseball being Baseball here. The xWOBA in each of those 35 games is essentially equal: .376 to .377. Luck is playing a role here. But, optimistically, perhaps there's some procedural explanations behind Caissie's turn from slight underperformance to massive overperformance.
First, we see a drop in Whiff Rate, from 35.8% early in the season to 24.4% over the last 35. That drop has been particularly noticeable on pitches designated as fastballs, with the whiff rate dropping from 28.2% to 18.8%.
But I think the key to the turnaround is a plate approach change. Let's compare the spray charts from each of Caissie's 35-game samples this season. Courtesy of the irreplaceable Baseball Savant, here’s the first 35:
And the second:
What I see in those charts is Caissie embracing the plate approach he’s most comfortable. Since joining the Cubs farm system, viewers of Caissie have noticed the opposite-gap mindset he likes to take. But because he's someone that hits the ball as hard as anyone not named Roman Anthony, the Cubs have tried to have him pull the ball more as his minor league career has gone on. Whether it was an overt decision or just a hitter finding a groove, the last five weeks has been Owen at his best, and also his most natural.
And Caissie's biggest turnaround on specific pitch types is also explained by that. Caissie has destroyed changeups of late, particularly over the last week, with two of his four homers from the weekend coming from offspeed. Being prepared to hit fastballs to the opposite field allows you to catch slower stuff in front and still keep it fair.
There are two perspectives, both of which I think are fair, about Owen Caissie’s last month. First, he’s the guy we’ve always known riding a really nice run. Second, he’s combined his plate approach with some coaching to make more contact, and he’s gone up a level. For the Cubs over the next three weeks, all that matters is discovering which organizations are viewing it the second way.
FOUR, The SP That Caught My Eye: Charlie Morton
Not Just Because He’s One of The Last Few Older Than Me
Even just 24 days away from the trade deadline here, it seems like we have less certainty than ever about what teams are going to sell. The Braves, Guardians, D-Backs are telling everyone with a pen that they won’t. The Marlins and Pirates and Angels are playing decent baseball. The Nationals have no one to pick up the phone.
If there is a certainty, however, it's that the Orioles ownership would be happy for you to pay for their eight-figure rentals. And while Charlie Morton's 5.47 ERA might scare you, I think he'd be a pretty intriguing one of two SP additions at the Deadline (I, for one, believe a second SP is a more glaring need than a 3B or RP as the Cubs second trade).
I watched Morton against his beloved Braves on the Fourth, and the eye test supported the good recent results: a 2.53 ERA in his last four starts. In fact, Morton’s ERA has been 2.76 dating back to May 10. That just tells you how bad he was early in the season.
On Friday, I saw the pitcher I remembered from his good seasons. The best way you can tell is the curveball. In April and May, the numbers will tell you he was struggling to find a feel for it, with the usage dropping and the worst results on the pitch he’s seen this decade. The movement properties on the pitch were okay, but like a golfer standing over the ball with doubts in his mind, something clearly felt off.
On Friday, Morton threw more curveballs than he has in a start all season. It had the highest average spin rate he’s had in a game yet. It had the third-highest velocity. They were diving just out of the zone instead of hugging the bottom of it. And he snagged 12 whiffs on the pitch, the most he has in 13 months.
Morton might be at a point in his career beyond trusting with a playoff start. But as a Taillon replacement, he provides a ready-made option that combines upside without the need for a Hottovy overhaul. He just found the fix himself. The cost, besides eating the contract, would be palatable. I’d endorse Uncle Charlie.
FIVE, What To Look Out For: Chris Flexen, Starter
Messing With A Good Thing?
It sure sounds to me like the Cubs are planning to start Chris Flexen in the rotation spot of dearly departed Jameson Taillon next week, and I want to give you something to look for.
You'll be aware that Flexen has been a revelation as a long reliever and mop-up man in Craig Counsell's pen, with his fastball rating as one of baseball's more valuable on a per-pitch basis. It's a pitch with unique cut-ride shape, and he's throwing it about a tick harder than he did on the White Sox last year. Last year he allowed 12 home runs with the pitch. This year he's allowed zero. I can’t say his pitch heat maps support such a drastic improvement in contact quality allowed.
The other scary thing about last year, as it portends to his potential new role, are these splits:
2024, Pitches 1-50: .256/.313/.421
2024, Pitches 51+: 320/.396/.547
And,
2024, 1st time thru (as SP): 734 OPS
2024, 2nd time thru (as SP): 933 OPS
2024, 3rd time thru (as SP): 886 OPS
The Cubs clearly know those numbers and have protected him this year from those situations, with just four games where he's faced any hitter a second time, and just two games exceeding 50 pitches. One of those was Saturday, where his 54th pitch yielded the third earned run he's allowed this season.
Flexen has earned trust and opportunity, and I can't blame the Cubs for picking him over Jordan Wicks to fill into that role until a trade occurs. But, I can't blame you for holding your breath when that pitch count hits five-zero, either.
THE WEEK AHEAD: 3 @ MIN, 3 @ NYY
I leave you with this, for really no reason at all, the 5 best breakfast sandwiches in Chicago: 1) Kasama, the one that ignited the revolution, 2) Loaf Lounge, my latest obsession, 3) 11 Degree North, the sleeper near Wrigley, 4) Doma Cafe, add the hashbrown yourself, and 5) R&A Sourdough, which edges out Allez Cafe.
Have a good week. Go Cubs.
Being a Cubs fan is better when you're writing! This is awesome. Thanks, Bryan!